Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 December 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (30 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 29/0449Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 073 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 072/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/010-018/024-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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