Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 February 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2017 Feb 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Feb 2017	075	015
05 Feb 2017	074	013
06 Feb 2017	075	013

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been very low. No significant flares have been recorded. However, a couple of small Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced around Active Regions (ARs) 2632 (Mcintosh class:Cao; Mag. type:Beta) and 2629 (Mcintosh class:Hax; Mag. type:Alpha) at 12:00 UT yesterday, neither event is expected to impact the Earth due to size and direction mainly to the West. All other Active Regions (ARs) have shown low levels of activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares and a very low probability of M-class flares. A large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is approaching the West solar limb. The solar wind speed been slowly decreasing and fluctuated between 650 and 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has been around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The high speed stream (HSS) associated with the large negative polarity trans-equatorial coronal hole extending from the Southern pole is the cause of the increased solar wind speeds creating active Geomagnetic conditions. The enhanced solar wind speed at the Earth is now decreasing as the region slowly rotates over the West solar limb. Consequently geomagnetic conditions should remain mainly quiet with the isolated chance of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 009, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2017

Wolf number Catania	042
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	034 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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