Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 March 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 25/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Mar), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 077 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 016/025-028/040-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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