Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 22/2043Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 22/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 22/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (23 Apr), active to
minor storm levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 084 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 033/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 028/040-023/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 65% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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