Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 07/2124Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 087 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 018/025-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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