Viewing archive of Friday, 4 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 783 km/s at 04/1541Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 04/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 04/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 074 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 024/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 016/020-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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