Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1343Z from Region 2672 (N08E34). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 23/1755Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 23/0942Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 23/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3710 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 085 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 011/014-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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