Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1750Z from Region 2671 (N10W31). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 22/0656Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 22/0149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 22/0149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 31128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 090 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 013/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 018/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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