Viewing archive of Monday, 18 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 18/1034Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 18/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 31067 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Sep, 20 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 072 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 072/072/073 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 019/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 012/014-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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