Viewing archive of Monday, 12 February 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0135Z from Region 2699 (S07W29). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/1756Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1729Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (14 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 079 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-007/008-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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