Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 337 km/s at 13/1820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/2018Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 076 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 076/075/074 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-020/028-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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