Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2018 Aug 15 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Aug 2018	070	016
16 Aug 2018	071	016
17 Aug 2018	072	011

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. A sunspot (NOAA 2718) as emerged yesterday with a beta magnetic configuration, no significant flare has been recorded. Quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period with a small chances of C-class flare from the sunspot NOAA-2718.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements started to be enhanced on July 15 around 01:00 UT indicating the onset of a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) associated with the arrival of solar wind from the Coronal Hole (which has crossed the central meridian on July 11). The wind speed increased from the nominal values (around 315-340 km/s) to the current values ranging from 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength currently reached 10 nT and is expected to increase further. The Southward magnetic component was fluctuating between -9 and 7 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist with an increase of the solar wind speed and magnetic field strength.

Due to the enhanced solar wind conditions, the geomagnetic conditions became unsettled (K-Dourbes and Kp equal 3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected until while the Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated to the coronal hole. Minor storm is not likely; however, it cannot be excluded especially if the southward magnetic component remains negative for longue periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 013, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Aug 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	069
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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