Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 September 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/0041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8688 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 067 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-008/010-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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