Viewing archive of Friday, 12 October 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2018 Oct 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2018	071	007
13 Oct 2018	071	007
14 Oct 2018	071	029

Bulletin

The new Active Region near the East limb has produced a B1.7 flare in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 3%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 480 to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. A high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth near the start of October 14, enhancing the solar wind conditions.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 12 and 13. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October 14 due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) intervals.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 017, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2018

Wolf number Catania	012
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	007 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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