Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 01/1916Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/1737Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1554Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 069
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  021/028-011/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%25%25%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%40%40%

All times in UTC

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