Viewing archive of Friday, 28 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 28/1959Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0606Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 069
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  015/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%20%

All times in UTC

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