Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2832 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 069
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  019/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  010/010-009/010-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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