Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1628Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 31/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
31/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 072 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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