Viewing archive of Friday, 1 February 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 01/1015Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 31/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 31/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 072 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/016-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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