Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/0312Z from Region 2736 (N09W48). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar,
23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (23 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 080 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/077 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-015/024-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 75% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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