Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 July 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 10/0237Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 10/0623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 068 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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