Viewing archive of Friday, 30 August 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 30/2036Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 30/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/1523Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 067 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 024/035-023/030-016/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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