Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 August 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 31/1250Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 31/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 066 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 029/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 021/030-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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