Viewing archive of Monday, 7 October 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 07/2016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1927 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 068
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%25%25%

All times in UTC

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