Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 25/0135Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
25/1923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 462 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 072 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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