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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 03/1547Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 072
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%40%

All times in UTC

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