Viewing archive of Monday, 19 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 19/1636Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 772 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(22 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 075 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 007/008-011/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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