Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Nov) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 15/0241Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/0513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 286 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 079 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 075/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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