Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 13/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 080 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 080/078/075 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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