Viewing archive of Friday, 11 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 11/1315Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 083 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 084/083/083 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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