Viewing archive of Friday, 11 December 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 11/1315Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 083
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 084/083/083
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%10%

All times in UTC

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