Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 10/0219Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 10/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
10/0204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 082 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 082/083/084 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 010/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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