Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 December 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Dec 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Dec 2020	082	018
11 Dec 2020	081	011
12 Dec 2020	080	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2790 is the only visible active region on the solar disc, it did not produce any C-class flares or larger in the past 24 hours. No flares expected above the B-class level.

No Earth directed CMEs were detected in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is at background levels and is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did not exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold, it can increase in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels, it may increase in the next 24 hours.

A shock was seen in the solar wind at 01:34 UT marking the arrival of the CME from 7 December. The speed jumped from 450 km/s to 560 km/s and the magnetic field from 6 nT to 16 nT. It did not have long lasting negative Bz (peaking at -10 nT) embedded in it, therefore only unsettled conditions were seen locally (K Dourbes = 3) and active at planetary levels (Kp = 4). The solar wind speed is now around 500 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field at 5 nT. The magnetic field phi angle was oriented mostly towards the Sun (negative). Before the shock, the solar wind speed was increasing, probably marking the arrival of the (weak) high speed stream expected (from an equatorial coronal hole). Further increases in speed can still be seen in the coming 24 hours. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions can be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 010, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	010 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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