Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 09/2001Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 558 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (10 Dec), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 082 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 082/082/084 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 028/040-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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