Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Dec), active to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 082 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 011/015-028/040-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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