Viewing archive of Monday, 4 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 04/1407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 652 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 078 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 007/010-015/018-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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