Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 329 km/s at 31/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5068 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 073 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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