Viewing archive of Monday, 26 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Oct, 28
Oct) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 26/1324Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/0047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 16463 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 075 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 012/015-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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