Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 26/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 19940 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Oct, 29 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 082 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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