Viewing archive of Friday, 6 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1522Z from Region 2781 (S23E29). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 06/0838Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/0413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 094 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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