Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
05/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/2042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2952 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 091 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 091/091/091 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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