Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 21/2027Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Nov, 23 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 085 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 085/087/089 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 016/018-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
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