Viewing archive of Friday, 20 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1845Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0836Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 082 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 082/082/085 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 007/008-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 55% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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