Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 325 km/s at 19/0918Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 077 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-008/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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