Viewing archive of Friday, 23 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct,
26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 072 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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