Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 21/2132Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/0455Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 075 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/020-013/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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