Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/0402Z from Region 2786 (S17E53). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 24/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1604Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 104 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/008-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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