Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/1253Z from Region 2786 (S17E41). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov,
28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 26/1704Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 106 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 106/108/105 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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