Viewing archive of Friday, 30 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 080 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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