Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (02 Nov)
and expected to be very low on day three (03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 31/0535Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/0921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 077 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 078/075/072 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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