Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 December 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Dec 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Dec 2020	083	003
17 Dec 2020	083	008
18 Dec 2020	083	009

Bulletin

NOAA regions 2792 (decayed to a plage) and 2793 (beta) have produced a few low B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 30%.

A filament eruption was observed near 15W30S in Cerro Tololo H alpha and AIA imagery, starting around 19:20 UT on December 15. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 310 to 270 km/s, with current values around 290 km/s. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between negative (towards the Sun) and positive (away from the Sun) and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on December 16 and the first half of December 17. Slight enhancements may be possible from the second half of December 17 onwards, due to the expected influence of a recurrent, small, negative polarity coronal hole that passed the central meridian on December 14.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 16, 17 and 18, with a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) from the second half of December 17 onwards.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	029
10cm solar flux	083
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	020 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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